What is the reason for the recent rise in oil prices? What are the pros and cons? Crude oil is the blood of the global economy, and price fluctuations are actually related to the relationship between supply and demand. And my country’s domestic refined oil prices are closely related to international oil prices.
The demand for crude oil is mainly related to the following factors.
First of all, it is related to the recent conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is the world’s second largest exporter of crude oil, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States. At present, the United States has banned the import of Russian oil, but the United States is fully self-sufficient in production, while Europe is still not enough. Possibly, but it has also greatly reduced Russia’s oil imports, while global crude oil production has not increased significantly, so international oil prices have risen in response.
Second, it is related to the epidemic.
Especially in the past two years, because the epidemic has suppressed social demand, and the emergence of the new coronavirus variant strain Omicron& is more contagious, the resulting new epidemic will inevitably lead countries around the world to step up epidemic control measures. These measures include restricting travel and going out, prohibiting gatherings or gatherings in large groups, prohibiting dining out, closing bars or nightclubs, and working from home as much as possible. These measures are not only a major negative for global tourism, hotels, air transportation, accommodation and catering, public transportation, retail, cultural and sports media, etc., but also cause a serious decline in social demand. In short, the society’s demand for crude oil has decreased, and it is very likely that a large number of social unemployed will be caused, and the social demand will be lower, which is very likely to cause a vicious circle. In addition, due to the prevention and control of the epidemic, many people will not be able to go to work and deliver work on time, which will indirectly cause many companies to fail to deliver goods or services on time, and directly cause tension in the global supply chain. These are bad for crude oil prices and the global economy, so crude oil prices have been running low last year.
Thirdly, the worldwide carbon peaking and carbon neutrality also force Europe, especially European and American countries to continue to use new energy.
Therefore, the new energy industry, including wind energy, solar energy, and even tidal energy, has been continuously promoted. The continuous rise in sales of new energy vehicles has been negative for international crude oil prices.
Finally, there is the U.S. dollar pricing system. In the past two years, in order to boost the economy, the United States has caused a large amount of excess issuance of U.S. dollars, resulting in serious inflation, which objectively caused the price of crude oil to rise.
Most of those responsible for crude oil supply are organized by OPEC, as well as some other producing countries, such as the United States, Russia, Qatar and so on. These countries can adjust their own production under certain conditions at any time according to the supply and demand relationship in the crude oil market, or release strategic reserves of oil to influence crude oil prices.
To sum up, under the influence of various factors, the price of crude oil will reach a relatively stable level, and there will be few sharp rises and falls. Even in this case, due to various factors, the fluctuations will soon stabilize.
At present, because the new crown virus has been raging for nearly two years, the world has a wealth of preventive measures and experience in this regard, and it is believed that new vaccines or new special drugs will be developed soon, and the epidemic will eventually be controlled. However, it is still because of the epidemic that the U.S. economy is facing a downturn. Therefore, in the past two years, the U.S. has stimulated the economy by issuing “infinite quantitative easing” of over-issued currency, which has also resulted in the over-issue of U.S. dollars in the past two years. In addition, the most important thing is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. , resulting in sanctions imposed by Europe and the United States on Russia, and Russia is a major exporter of energy, which directly led to a surge in the prices of international bulk commodities, including oil and natural gas.
Due to the continuous rise of crude oil prices, and because oil prices involve all aspects of life, it is bound to further increase the global inflationary pressure, which has also formed a large imported inflationary pressure on my country, which will reduce the application space of our fiscal policy. , including interest rate cuts and RRR cuts. The possibility of the United States raising interest rates in advance will further increase, and the situation of global monetary tightening may arrive ahead of schedule.